“I think we should be happy if the dairy market returns next year to the growth rate registered in 2008, of some 30 percent, a year of reference for processors.
I estimate that the first half of 2010 will not be very different from what happened this year, and will be as difficult financially. But even in 2009 we can talk about an increase, of up to 10 percent, on all dairy segments.
I believe that in the second half of 2010, the growth pace will be closer to that registered in the years prior to the crisis,” said Tzafrir Granat, Muller’s Vice President Marketing.
Prices will increase gradually in the first three months of next year, and a 5-8 percent rise is expected at the end of the first quarter, due to the rise in the prices of utilities and imported raw materials, officials of Romanian Employers’ Association in the Milk Industry (APRIL) said.
“As of September alone, the price of imported milk increased 20 percent,” Valentin Blănaru, APRIL’s General Manager, told Business Standard.
The official estimates imports will rise in the near future.
In fact, processors often resort to imports in the cold season, because the quantity of milk collected from local farmers is insufficient.
“Moreover, as of January, I believe that farmers will no longer be motivated to produce milk for processors, considering they will not be subsidized any longer for the quality of milk, at RON 0.3 [€0.07] per litre,” added Blănaru.
The 20 percent decline registered in the first three months of this year on the domestic dairy market was recovered in the second and third quarters, and estimates for the whole of 2009 indicate stagnation in terms of value at the 2008 level, of €1.1 billion.
