“We need to engage Russia, we’ll find out how,” said Geoana, one of the main presidential candidates in this fall’s election. “Everybody is competing for the Eurasian corridor. That’s why British and Soviets went into Afghanistan, that’s why we engaged, although reasons were obscured by 9/11,” added Geoana. “We’ll be the regional hub. In foreign affairs, we are now working with four of 12 cylinders,” is how Geoana explained Romania’s stake.
Dr. Charles King Mallory, Executive Manager of the Aspen International and the RAND strategic studies think tank, said that there is a need for pressure levers, which can be closed off like taps if Russia were to attempt to “flex its muscles:” access to technology and financial markets, and freedom of movement. “The Russians do not need to pussy-foot around. They speak power and do so directly. We don’t want 150 million people on our border when oil goes under 40,” added Mallory.
Analyst Vladimir Socor, specialized in Eastern European politics and columnist for the European edition of the Wall Street Journal, says that a strong American presence is needed in Romania and Bulgaria. Practically speaking, a ‘new Ribbentrop-Molotov pact’ is being sketched, in the form of a dividing line which falls exactly in the middle of the Black Sea, said Socor, who believes that conditions should be created for all states to be able to choose their own alliances.
“Russia must withdraw its Crimea fleet. The deadline is 2017, but physically it should begin in 2010, for the target to be respected. As 2017 comes closer, Russia will force an extension of the deadline. We are talking about 15,000 troups and 100 ships,” added Socor, who explained that the invasion of Georgia showed what can happen when there is no control over such a situation.
