“At present we are not expecting excessive fluctuations at the end of this year. The exchange rate will continue its trend registered in the past few months, with the support of the National Bank of Romania, of course,” the Chief Economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank, Rozalia Pal, said. She explained that the leu’s recent downward trend is related to foreign markets, especially the declines on Asian stock markets and the evolution of the dollar. The European currency appreciated against the dollar last week, up to its highest level in the past nine months, of $1.46/€1. Some analysts say that the single currency could near the $1.50-1.55/€1 threshold in the coming months.
“The leu-dollar exchange rate will remain relatively stable until just before the elections, but it remains to be seen what will happen immediately afterwards. It is very difficult to estimate what will happen in December, and one of the factors on which the evolution of the exchange rate will depend is the honoring of commitments [Romania] made to the IMF [International Monetary Fund]. The leu gained against the dollar lately, because the American currency depreciated against the euro,” the Chief Economist of Banca Comerciala Romana, Lucian Anghel, said.
“The exchange rate could be around RON 4.25/€1 at the end of this year, because the narrowing of the current account deficit will be canceled out by a worsening of the private sector’s expectation, due to sharp economic contraction, postponing the restructuring of the public sector, the unpredictable fiscal policy, and rising unemployment,” the Head of the Research Department of Volksbank Romania, Melania Hancila, said.
