The candidates supported by the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL), the Social Democratic Party (PSD), and the National Liberal Party (PNL), namely Traian Băsescu, Mircea Geoană, and Crin Antonescu, will most likely battle it out in for the second round of elections. In addition to voting for the President, Romanians will also vote in a referendum for a unicameral parliament proposed by current President Băsescu.
According to the latest surveys by CURS and INSOMAR, the chances of Traian Băsescu are 32-33 percent, Mircea Geoană, 30-32 percent, and Crin Antonescu, 18-19 percent. Others in the presidential race are Sorin Oprescu (expected to obtain 5-6 percent), Corneliu Vadim Tudor (5 percent), Kelemen Hunor (4 percent), George Becali (2-3 percent), while Remus Cernea, Ovidiu Iane, Constantin Potîrcă, Eduard Manole, and Constantin Rotaru together stand to win one percent of the vote. The betting parlour favourite is Băsescu, with odds at 1.8 to 1. His main competitors, Geoană and Antonescu, have odds of 2.5 to 1 and 7.8 to 1, respectively, while the odds for Oprescu are 50 to 1, according to data provided by the Gamebookers betting agency.
The proposal to hold a referendum for a unicameral parliament with up to 300 lawmakers on the same day as the first round of elections was criticized by Băsescu’s political opponents, but also by non-governmental organizations. They said that this would give an electoral advantage to the current President. Moreover, a positive response to the referendum’s questions does not mean that the measures will be applied immediately.
Any change in the structure of the parliament must be accompanied by a revision of the Constitution. According to the law, the referendum is validated only if half plus one of total voters participate in the vote. The revision proposal must obtain the votes of three quarters of the total number of Deputies and Senators, and will be final after it is approved in a second referendum, organized no later than 30 days from the date the project was adopted.
Romania is currently in the midst of a political crisis, which began on 13 October with the collapse of the government headed by Prime Minister Emil Boc. Băsescu then designated Lucian Croitoru, Advisor to the Governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) as Prime Minister, but the latter failed the Parliament’s validation test, and it is now the turn of Liviu Negoiţă, Mayor of Bucharest’s third sector, and current Prime Minister designate, to obtain the Parliament’s confidence vote.
